If you’re looking for UFC 245 Predictions for Usman vs. Covington – look no further. We have an in-depth breakdown of the grudge match for the undisputed UFC welterweight title.

If you ask most UFC fans, they will say Colby Covington (15-1) has no chance against the champion. However you need to account for the most problematic issue when making a wager. Athlete bias. “Chaos” Covington wants you to hate him. Like all heels, he knows that love or hate him, you’re watching. Do yourself a favor and stick to the numbers and not the persona.

Usman vs Covington Stats

On the surface we have grappler vs. grappler. But that isn’t the full story. If you’re talking grappling, Covington has the slight edge on paper. He’s more active in takedown attempts and keeping it there. Usman however is more rounded with heavy striking and grappling. In the stand-up we expect Usman to have the slight advantage.

UFC 245 Predictions for Covington’s Path to Victory

Similar to Nate Diaz, the biggest weapon in Covington’s arsenal is his cardio. Running insane marathons with Cameron Hanes will do that. Mix in a collegiate background that has proven success in the octagon and you have “twisted steel and sex appeal” as Covington self-describes. We’ve also seen that Covington now has the jabs down as he broke striking records in his last bout against former champ Robbie Lawler. To win the title, Covington will need to get it to the ground early and keep it there for five rounds. Unless Usman’s injuries catch up with him, Covington is not going to do well trading jabs for Usman’s hooks. If he can antagonize the champ and wear him down on the ground, he can finish this in the final round.

Usman’s Path to Victory

Kamaru looked unbeatable in his last few bouts – and for the same reasons that Covington has been succesful. Cardio and grappling. But unlike Covington, Usman gets it to the ground after softening his opponents with crafty striking. His strikes are more heavy and he mixes to the body more. If Usman lands some big shots early to the body, the dividends will pay in the fourth and fifth. Usman should be able to match the grappling on the ground, but his true path to victory will be in the standing.

UFC 245 Prediction for Usman vs. Covington Prediction

Kamaru Usman by split decision. Usman is the favorite, and thus the safe bet. Not the smart bet however. The main event is not worth the bet on its own. Consider a parlay or a dog like Volkanovski over Holloway. I love Blessed but he may finally run into a grappler that can give him trouble. Make sure to check out our Holloway vs. Volkanovski predictions for UFC 45 as well.