UFC 253 is upon us and as usual, we will be providing you an in-depth Reyes vs. Blachowicz Prediction. On the surface we have an athletic striker (Reyes), versus a knockout artist (Blachowicz). But as usual, that is not the full story. Digging into the numbers, you realize Jan is actually a jiu-jitsu blackbelt killer on the ground with majority finished by submission. And Reyes is not just athletic, he has majority wins by KO. With those misnomers out of the way, we can talk about both fighters path to victory.
Dominick Reyes’ Path to Victory
The “Devastator” is just as his monicker suggests, a dominant force in the light heavyweight division. And if you’ve seen his movement, power and creativity in the cage, you can understand why. His fight IQ is far superior, that of his opponent. He knows when to take risk and when to work the body. I can see Reyes working the desk at ESPN in his retirement, but for now, he’s schooling fighters with double the octagon experience. Mix in his NFL level athleticism and it’s no surprise many had him (myself included) outpointing the greatest UFC fighter, Jon Jones. Reyes is fighting a completely different style fight when he steps in against Jan Blachowicz. His opponent will give him no space, and will keep him busy with dodging large hooks. Reyes needs to keep it standing and take the first two rounds to download his opponents fight pace. As the rounds go on and Blachowicz slows, he needs to continue to empty his opponents gas tank with his patented straight to the gut. His kicking game is awkward, but it will likely work against Blachowicz. If Reyes can keep on the outside and pick apart his opponent, he will be the new UFC light heavyweight champ.
Jan Blachowicz’s Path to Victory
It’s no secret what Jan wants to do. He wants to move forward and take your block off. If it goes to the ground, protect your neck, because his RNC game is slick. Where Jan is going to shine is early in the fight before Reyes has a beat on him. If he can intelligently walk down Reyes and plant a few on the chin, he may just pull off the first round KO. Otherwise, second plan should be to tie Reyes us in a clinch to trip, or run the pipe and get it to the ground. From there, Blachowicz now has the advantage, and if he can keep it there, it’s game over for Reyes. The problem is Reyes proved to be extremely tough to get down as we saw Jon Jones struggle to do so. Ultimately, it’s fight, and Blachowicz may not be as technical as Reyes, he does have the ability to make the fight into chaos, where he has a higher probability of getting the finish.
Prediction: Reyes by decision.
Yes, both men are finishers, however when you get to the highest echelon in the sport, decisions are more prevalent. That’s because both men have climbed the mountain of competition and they are not going to fall off easy. Blachowicz is a powerhouse, however Reyes is the real deal as far as talent and technical savvy. He will not allow the fight to go anywhere where he is not superior. Watch for Reyes to avoid the onslaught and pick Blacho